Conference Report
On 25 June 2026, IFAIR e.V. hosted the online panel discussion Dynamics in the South China Sea – The Status Quo and New Perspectives. The event brought together distinguished experts on maritime security and Southeast Asian affairs: Emeritus Prof Carlyle Thayer, Monica Sato, and Dr Collin Koh. Moderated by Jannik Rickert, the discussion combined expert presentations with a moderated exchange and an interactive Q&A session. The event lasted approximately 100 minutes.
All three speakers are internationally recognised scholars with extensive expertise on maritime security, ASEAN, and the South China Sea disputes. Their academic work has been complemented by numerous policy papers, media contributions and commentaries, making them prominent voices in contemporary debates on Indo-Pacific security and regional order.
Structure of the Event
The event opened with welcoming remarks by the moderator, followed by introductions of the speakers and their respective research backgrounds. A member of IFAIR’s Executive Board subsequently presented the organisation before the substantive discussion commenced.
Each speaker delivered an opening presentation of approximately ten minutes, addressing different dimensions of the South China Sea dispute from their respective areas of expertise. These presentations were followed by a moderated discussion and a question-and-answer session in which participants were invited to engage directly with the speakers. The event concluded with a final round in which each expert reflected on the question of how the situation in the South China Sea could develop over the coming decade before the moderator officially closed the discussion.
Background
The South China Sea has long been characterised by overlapping territorial and maritime claims involving several coastal states. These disputes concern exclusive economic zones, oil and gas exploration, fisheries, strategically important sea lines of communication, and sovereignty over numerous maritime features, particularly within the Spratly Islands. Growing Chinese power since the early 2010s has fundamentally altered the strategic environment. Beijing has pursued its expansive maritime claims with increasing confidence, including those associated with the so-called Nine-Dash Line. In response, the Philippines initiated arbitration proceedings under UNCLOS, resulting in the 2016 Arbitral Award. While the tribunal rejected key elements of China’s maritime claims, Beijing has consistently refused to recognise the ruling.
Since then, regional tensions have continued to intensify. Incidents involving the Chinese Coast Guard and maritime militia have become increasingly frequent, while extensive infrastructure development has transformed several disputed maritime features. At the diplomatic level, ASEAN has spent more than two decades negotiating a Code of Conduct intended to establish confidence-building measures. Nevertheless, despite continued negotiations, no binding agreement has entered into force. Against this geopolitical backdrop, the panel sought to assess current developments and discuss possible future trajectories for the region.
Key Insights and Discussion
Professor Carlyle Thayer outlined the historical evolution of the dispute, emphasising that the origins of today’s tensions predate the arbitration proceedings by decades. He highlighted the discovery of offshore energy resources during the early 1970s as a turning point, leading to increasing competition over maritime features. Professor Thayer also devoted considerable attention to ASEAN’s role in conflict management. While acknowledging ASEAN’s continued engagement, he argued that internal differences among member states continue to make the conclusion of a meaningful Code of Conduct highly unlikely in the foreseeable future.
Monica Sato complemented the historical perspective with empirical evidence derived from satellite imagery and open-source analysis conducted by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative. Her presentation illustrated the significant expansion of Vietnamese construction activities on several disputed features in the Spratly Islands. These developments demonstrate that large-scale infrastructure projects are no longer exclusively associated with China.
Dr Collin Koh focused on China’s use of so-called “grey zone” tactics. He explained how the People’s Republic increasingly employs the China Coast Guard and maritime militia alongside the PLA Navy to pursue strategic objectives while deliberately remaining below the threshold of open military conflict. Particular attention was given to repeated confrontations involving Philippine civilian vessels near Second Thomas Shoal.
The subsequent discussion addressed several broader geopolitical questions. One central topic concerned the implications for European security. The speakers noted that several European countries, including Germany, have explicitly recognised the strategic importance of freedom of navigation in their Indo-Pacific strategies and have deployed naval vessels to the region in support of the rules-based international order. Another important aspect concerned the Philippines’ alliance with the US. While the Mutual Defense Treaty continues to provide an important element of deterrence, the speakers also highlighted persistent uncertainties regarding the scope and nature of potential US responses in the event of future escalation.
Conclusion
The panel successfully brought together three internationally respected scholars specialized on the South China Sea, providing participants with a comprehensive and nuanced assessment of one of the Indo-Pacific’s most significant security challenges. The online format proved particularly effective, enabling experts and participants from four different time zones to engage in a productive exchange. The fact that the speakers had interacted professionally on previous occasions also contributed to an open discussion atmosphere. The exclusive participation of academic experts ensured a strong analytical focus on key strategic issues. At the same time, future events could benefit from incorporating additional perspectives, for example from military practitioners or economic experts, in order to broaden the discussion. Particularly noteworthy was the participation of Monica Sato, whose contribution reflected IFAIR’s commitment to promoting emerging voices in international affairs and strengthening the visibility of early-career scholars within foreign policy debates.
Finally, the event demonstrated the continued relevance of the South China Sea as a subject of informed public discussion. Framing the panel around the tenth anniversary of the 2016 Arbitral Award provided and effective point of departure for analysing current security dynamics.
